Who will win the TI11 Last Chance Qualifier?

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Oct 09

The final qualifier for TI11, the Last Chance Qualifier (LCQ) is on the horizon with 12 teams ready to clash in a brutal do-or-die. And unlike previous qualifiers, this Wildcard round will be slightly more chaotic with a mix of all regions. If you are wondering which teams will make it to TI11 or you want to place your predictions purely from stats alone – we have the numbers for you.

As usual, there are a couple of heavy favorites among the teams. The powerhouses from Western Europe (WEU), Team Secret and Team Liquid, Eastern European’s (EEU) Virtus.pro, fan-favorite T1 from Southeast Asia (SEA), and the Chinese contenders, Xtreme Gaming and Vici Gaming are not to be underestimated.

Among these favorites, which teams actually have the odds in their favor?

The LCQ bears a slightly different format compared to other tournaments. Since there are two final slots, two teams will technically win the LCQ – the Upper Bracket winner and the Lower Bracket winner.

According to Dota 2 statistician, Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen, Virtus.Pro has the highest probability to place 1st, followed by Team Liquid in 2nd place. This calculation takes into account the performance of the teams throughout the year’s Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) season.

Here are the top 10 for TI11 LCQ according to datdota:

Virtus.pro, also known as Outsiders, is undoubtedly solid despite missing half of the DPC season this year. The team scored top 3 in Tour 1 and had enormous chances to make it to the PGL Arlington Major in Tour 2. However, they were disqualified due to their carry player, Pure drawing a pro-war symbol in the heat of the Ukraine invasion.

VP parted ways with Pure and took in prodigy RAMZES666. Now with a slight edge on experience, VP looks convincing but they missed their shot during the EEU qualifiers, dropping to BetBoom Team in the Finals.

Just like VP, Team Liquid has been greatly consistent but seems to fall short when it truly matters. Throughout the DPC season, Liquid scores a constant top 3 placing. They had a strong showing in Tour 1, placing 1st in the Regional League and 2nd in Regional Final. In Tour 2, Liquid still managed to hover above the top 3, qualifying to the ESL One Stockholm Major. But they had a disappointing run, finishing near the bottom of the tournament.

Tour 3 was the same case, with them placing high in the Regional League but flunking during the PGL Arlington Major. Despite falling to Team Secret in the WEU qualifier, Liquid has a slightly higher probability to make it through the LCQ – courtesy of their consistency.

You may take this prediction with a pinch of salt as it doesn’t take in any other weighty factors such as the new patch or the different regions. There have been instances where a team dominates their region, yet flunks in international tournaments. T1’s lineup is also fresh off a shuffle, only playing a couple of games so far.

And of course, qualifiers are usually the grounds of miraculous runs. We can only anticipate what madness takes place during the tournament.

The Last Chance Qualifier for TI11 begins on October 8th and ends on October 15th. Stay tuned to our site for more LCQ updates!

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